The box office can be a tricky subject. Many have mastered it while many
fail faster than a Pauly Shore comedy. The box office is not something that can be learned
over night, and is generally something you can't just pick random numbers for and expect
some sort of similar reaction. There are many factors you need to take into consideration
and that's what this segment is all about. For instance, Fri. - Sun. daily ticket sales
for a teen comedy and an adult comedy are likely to be different. Teens and young adults
usually prefer rushing out to a movie on opening night, as Friday night sales can be let's
say $4.5 million while the film could have another $4.5 million tally, slightly more or
even slightly less amount for Saturday, and in the high $2 (million) area for Sunday.
If a comedy aimed at the over 21 crowd opened, its daily performance could
turn out to be $4.5 million for Friday, almost $6.0 million for Saturday and roughly $3.5
million on Sunday. Adding up all three figures would give you $14.0 million at the box
office. The only thing remotely different between the two examples are the percentage
gains and losses between Friday's, Saturday's and Sunday's business. Adults tend to be
more open in their schedule Saturday evenings/nights than Friday nights, while teens
usually prefer invading their local theaters opening night ahead of the pack.
Kids movies are quite risky. Some prosper and go to Heaven while some
others go South instead of North. Industry observers have stressed it for quite some time
- kids movies are the worst to get tracking info from. You never really know how big a
family movie will go until its opening day, really. You of course have gut instincts but
you never really know whether or not they will perform to what you think. Some family
oriented films will have a decent to good Friday opening and have a huge 100% increase or
even more on the Saturday. The reasoning behind that is that kids have school on Friday
and their parents may not find time when the kids are home in the afternoon/evening, so
they take 'em on Saturday to a matinee or afternoon show. Though there are some who will
have a decent Friday debut and not receive as much as a 100% boost on Saturday.
If you're interested in predicting, these are all the things that at some
point should come into mental thought - Study the box office, the genres of films that do
well and don't do very well, the acting talent involved, how heavy promotion is (sometimes
heavy promotion isn't a good thing, or doesn't do that much of a difference in attracting
an audience), the MPAA ratings (R, PG-13, PG, G) of films that do and don't do well, the
given season versus the history behind that season. Even browsing to see the box office
history results from the actors involved in a film - if an actor couldn't open a movie
three months ago the actor still may have no luck. The list just continues. Some may look
at the above list and say, "damn, that's hard...", but it usually comes to a
point where all these factors come into your head fairly quickly where it doesn't take
very long to think it all out - it just flows. But that's when you've tracked the box
office for a while and sort of know the deal.
So why I am going through all the trouble of going through hints and basic
Cliff Notes for the box office? As the host (along with Jason Kaplan) of BOFC, we want to
make sure all of you, or most of you know what you're doing when entering the contest.
However, we do encourage people who aren't intensely interested in the box office. You've
got nothing to lose. There's no registration involved - you can just visit BOFC once or
twice a week for screen counts, the Rotten Tomatoes score and anything else you desire,
and then predict! Then of course part way through the week you should tune back in for the
results to that game and check your placement (everyone's ranking is displayed). Can't
predict very well? You've got nothing to lose, just go for it! Don't have a DVD player?
Play anyway! And if you happen to win, sell your DVD prize to a friend who does have a
player. This can be a profitable game for the ones who aren't gifted with a $150 - 200
player...
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